The Chancellor behaves as if he believes the Office of Budget Responsibility forecasts. That way disaster lies. In November they forecast a£394bn deficit for the year to March 2021. By March this year they had found an extra £40 bn and said the deficit would be £354bn. The outturn for that year announced shortly after the last forecast was £304 bn. So all their advice to put in tax rises to raise say £10 bn was swamped by a £90 bn improvement thanks to growth and their poor model.
This year they forecast £234bn. In the year so far the deficit is £26 bn less than their forecast, again a multiple of the amount in extra tax revenue they tell the Chancellor to raise.
On this bogus pessimistic prospectus it would be most unwise to put up tax rates . The way to speed a welcome reduction in the deficit is to speed growth by lower tax rates.That is the best way to more revenue and more jobs. A tax on jobs when you want to promote more and better paid employment is particularly stupid.
